In the afternoon of June 21st 2016, the SIES held a seminar at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, where Professor Mamahon of Plymouth University of the UK delivered a speech on the topic of “The European Integration with Differences” and nearly 20 Chinese experts like Xu Mingqi, Wu Yikang, Dai Bingran, Ye Jiang, Yang Fengmin, Zhang Yongan, Dai Qixiu, Wang Zhiqiang, Pan Xingming, Cao Ziheng, Cui Hongwei, Xin Hua, Jian Junbo, Dai Yichen, Zang Shumei, Ye Yuming, Yang Haifeng, Yang Shulan were present at the meeting and exchanged their ideas with Professor Mamahon on the issue of the influence of Bexit.
In his speech, Professor Mamahon pointed out there is an emerging geographical difference in European Integration, which has now been institutionalized and legalized. The reason behind is that with the EU expanding, the varieties of its member states is increasingly coming out and varieties mean differences, which exert an impact on the integration. For example, major powers on the European continent have been firm supporters of the integration while countries in northern Europe such as Scandinavian countries and the UK are reluctant to push the initiative. Countries in eastern and southern Europe such as central & eastern Europe, Ukraine and Georgia wish to accelerate the integration process, which has been declined by the EU. As it stretches east and south, border control comes to a fierce dispute, of which western & northern Europe are less sensitive.
There is a deep historical and ideological background behind such a situation. For example, northern Europeans believed that their countries enjoy more freedom and prosperity than the rest of the EU while eastern Europeans who are against the EU are also are against the ideology of freedom, who boast the least wealth within the Union. Thanks to the gap of seas, northern Europe have suffered less from the two world wars, where the people have a strong dislike for the iron hand rule of the Hapsburg Dynasty in history and prefer such an iron hand not to rise again. Meanwhile, Protestants of northern Europe are against the centralism of Vatican in the Reformation while Catholics and Orthodox followers are supportive of a central church. Also, northern Europe has a strong feeling of superiority. Social democrats of Sweden and the UK have a superior feeling of justice, democracy, freedom and even race and they deem southern Europe as backward authoritarian states. The historical, cultural and ideological factors above are the root cause of the euroscepticism in northern Europe, which will have a deep influence of the future of Europe.
In the session of Q & A, Professor Mamahon believed that the aim of Bexit initiated by Cameron is not to slow down the integration but to win the UK a special position and influence within the Union, just like the privileges entitled to Denmark.(Northern Europe such as Denmark enjoyed a special position within the EU.) The UK will maintain ties with the EU, which will become weaker if the Brexit come true. The UK will neither stay in the Union nor walk out of it. It will maintain ties with the common market and get rid of the constraints of the EU institutions at the same time.
The prevalence of euroscepticism in the UK is the result of party politics. In the past ten years the Conservative party is facing with challenges from both sides. On one hand, less successful participants are against the EU. On the other hand, the business circles are supportive of more interaciton with it. The contradicting forces are tearing the Conservative party apart with equally matched fierce struggles. Same thing also happen to the Labor party, where less educated voters are full of fear with the EU.
There are abundant researches, including reports released by the Bank of England and think tanks within the EU and outside of it, regarding the economic outcome of the Brexit. The idea is that the UK will suffer a loss of GDP of 15%, 4% and 1%, to name a few. Also, the US leaders stated that it is impractical for the two parties to sign an immediate bilateral trade deal if the Brexit come true, which smashed day dreams of some Brexit supporters.
Significantly, Denmark would follow the path if the UK walked out of the Union with mere small losses. Northern Europe may form a union like what they did in the 50s, the possibility of which, however, is very low. In conclusion, the EU would take cautious measures dealing with the Brexit. If tit came true, the EU would take a aggressive position in economic and trade negotiations with the UK, so to warn other countries which want to follow the same path.
