On January 6th, Prof. Klaus Larres, an expert of Russian and Chinese studies from the University of North Carolina in the U.S., visited the Shanghai Institute for European Studies, and exchanged ideas with Shanghai scholars on the topic of “the change of big power relations after Trump’s election victory: the factors of China and Russia in the transatlantic relations”. This meeting was participated in by Prof. XU Mingqi, Prof. WU Yikang, Prof. ZHENG Chunrong, Dr. CAO Ziheng, Prof. DAI Qixiu, Prof. WANG Zhiqiang, Ms. YE Yuming, Prof. XIN Hua, and Dr. YANG Haifeng.
From his point of view, Larres thought that different countries are all trying to keep a balance between big powers. As for the U.S.-Europe relations, Russia has become the most crucial issue in their disputes. Trump is a friend of Putin and wants to treat Russia in a friendly way. However, if Trump lifts the sanctions on Russia, he will create a tension in the U.S.-Europe relations. But the United States and Europe will not get divorced. It may be predicted that a period of hard time will appear between the Trump administration and the Europe.
Larres said that Trump is strongly hostile towards China and will bring unusual hardship to the China-U.S. relations. Both the bilateral trade and the bilateral relations in the South China sea will become increasingly deteriorated. The Taiwan issue will become a very dangerous one. He warned that the European Union will surely choose to stand on the side of the United States if the European Union is compelled to choose a side when some intensive conflicts break out between United States and China on the Taiwan issue, although it may not necessarily involve itself into any real military actions. He argued that the Germany might be able to play the role of a mediator between the United States and China because it can form good relations with both the Trump team and China, but Germany’s role as a mediator is limited.
Larres thought that the chaotic situation brought by the inauguration of the Trump might continue for a relatively long period and might create chaos even in the international order. In his opinion, an impeachment on Trump may not be completely impossible if he clings to his own course obstinately and willfully, but adequate reasons and evidences are needed to launch an impeachment. The only weakness of Trump lies in the over-extensiveness of his business interests across over 100 countries of the world. If someone really catches some evidence of any misconduct that he does for his business interests, it is likely that he may be impeached. Russia is unlikely to become a big winner in any chaotic international order due to its flawed economic structure and low level of development. In another word, Russia is rather weak. China should handle things in a rational and calm way, respond to external provocations cautiously, and resolve its internal problems appropriately. In this way, China will become the biggest winner, and its international influence and prestige will also grow upward, because its economic strength is fairly powerful.
